One of our services offered to clients is providing trade recommendations in UK equities. After taking a step back from the market last July – October when Risk Reward opportunities weren’t viable given the intraday volatility, our service has resumed and run consistently since December. Capitalising on the year end rally and move so far this year recent recommendations report solid returns. (For a spreadheet of our Trade Recs please contact us)
Our current outlook for the FTSE itself remains bullish in line with the recent trend higher although a lack of volume is worrying as we approach significant resistance as shown by the FTSE chart below.
As such, the Risk Reward for further upside in the FTSE isn’t particularly favourable so our recent recommendations have focused on short opportunities. Obviously such action is risky given the trend of the market which is why we’ve looked into stocks that have recently released fundamental news and reacted with a large increase in volume. Two such instances are Tullow Oil and Morrisons Supermarkets.
Tullow Oil has been trading within a broad sideways consolidation since September but continues to fail around 1470. After releasing an update the stock gapped lower to post an ‘Abandoned Baby’ candlestick reversal. Additionally a failure at the underside of a broken up trend line has provided an opportunity for a short trade running a stop above the recent gap lower.
Morrisons Supermarkets posted a massive reversal candle at the start of the year and hasn’t looked back since. After selling off significantly Morrisons lost further ground and gapped lower following comments from rival Tesco. A counter trend rally has returned to the 38.2% retracement and a break above short term swing highs at 298 was rejected yesterday to post a Bearish Engulfing Candle on good volume. Trade below yesterdays low begins to confirm the Bearish Engulfing candle providing an entry for a short trade whilst running a stop above the Gap.
Both these trades have been sent to our clients and although against the trend of the market their relative underperformance, fundamental news flow, and increased volume increases the probability of the trade. This is why stock selection is key.
Liam Roberts MSTA