I have been bearish of this market for a good while now and it’s proved fruitful, but today I am thinking that shorts should be covered.

Why, when the Dow has just printed it’s lowest price since 1997, would I suddenly start to think bullish thoughts?

Because I read the papers and listen to the financial news channels, and upon making this new multi-year low the world seemed to collectively shrug it’s shoulders. Ambivalence is the order of the day? Dow to 6000? Yeah, why not (you hear people say in a resigned tone).

(The FTSE is faring slightly better, holding above last years low for now, and when I trawl through the FTSE 100 stocks I see many stocks that are nowhere near making new lows compared to last years)

If you are regular readers of this Blog you’ll recall the “Sentiment Cycle” chart we posted back in October. Here it is again.

This was first published in a book called “The Nature of Markets” by a New York based Technical Analyst, Justin Mamis, back in 1991.

Note that the bottom of the cycle, when markets ultimately bottoms out, is “Discouragement” – -I think that’s what it feels like now…. and I think we’re hitting bottom.

Remember, when everyone’s sold who’s gonna sell, when everyone’s short who can be short, there’s no one left to sell it, and the market cannot go down any more if there aren’t any sellers left!

Have we got the banner headlines of doom, gloom and despair on the front cover of things like Newsweek and the like? Are Taxi drivers telling you that the Stock Market is finished? Let me know!!!

Be Safe,

Cheers,

Clive.