Someone should buy Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson a pair of super-hero suits, because they’ve come to the rescue again!
Back in March (the last time were down at these levels) they stepped in to rescue the markets when they were on key Fibonacci support levels… Today I’m going to post the mail I sent out to all of our professional clients and contacts at that time. You may get a feeling of Deja vu reading this:
“Anyone who looks at Dollar/Yen will know that the BoJ intervene at key technical levels. THEY LOOK AT CHARTS.
I mooted something in the Bund report this morning that may have had a few people questioning my sanity; the idea that the Fed are stepping in to hold Equities above key supports.
Let’s look at the evidence: The last big move from the Fed was the 75 bps cut in January, just when the S&P was threatening to shank through 1281.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2003 – October 2007 rally. A BIG LEVEL!
They did the same thing yesterday when we were once again back at these levels.
In terms of the medium term technicals there is a strong argument that many people will be looking for weakness to 1187.50 then 1093 if this level breaks.
The key here isn’t whether this move can or will unfold; it’s the number of people who believe the story, and if intervention means the sell trigger doesn’t come, and a solid base of support is found, then the intervention would be deemed a success.
In the Dow Futures the corresponding KEY support is 11651.
In the NASDAQ it’s 1699″
The NASDAQ has done fine since then and isn’t threatening these key levels but the Dow and S&P dipped below them last week…. and Treasury and Fed stepped in…
More tomorrow. Watch this space.
PS. Follow this link for my latest CNBC appearance. I was making a point about not needing to “pick bottoms”. It could have been any number of charts from the Banking or Building Sectors, really, so no offence to Bradford and Bingley…